ICSG revises copper surplus downward

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG), based in Lisbon, Portugal, has revised its view on the world balance of refined copper production and use.

Mine production is expected to increase by 0.5 percent in 2024 and by 3.9 percent in 2025: The growth rate for this year has been decreased from the 3.7 percent forecast ICSG made in October of last year. The group cited slower-than-expected ramp-up of a number of projects, delays in project commissioning, revised company production guidance and the closure of First Quantum’s 380,000 metric ton-per-year Cobre Panama mine for the revision.

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In 2025, global output will benefit from the startup of the Malmyzhskoye mine in the Russian Federation as well as the Kammoa-Kakula Phase 3 expansion in the Democratic Republic of Congo, as well as a number of expansions and the opening of some medium and small mines.

World refined copper production is forecast to rise by about 2.8 percent this year and by 2.2 percent in 2025. Refined copper output is expected to recover from a series of maintenance outages, accidents and operational issues that occurred in 2023 in several major producing countries, including Chile, Japan, India, Indonesia and the U.S., ICSG says. Overall, primary electrolytic refined output is expected to increase by 2.9 percent and electrowinning production by 0.5 percent.

In 2025, while the group says production will increase from the continued expansion of Chinese electrolytic capacity and the ramp-up of new smelters/refineries in Indonesia and India, primary electrolytic refined production growth is expected to be limited by the constrained availability of concentrates. ICSG predicts primary electrolytic refined production will increase by 0.7 percent, while electrowinning output is forecast to rise by 4 percent and secondary refined production (from recycled material) by 6 percent, benefiting from expanded capacity.

ICSG expects world apparent refined copper use to increase by about 2 percent in 2024 and by 2.5 percent in 2025. That growth rate was revised downward for 2024 from the 2.7 percent the group forecast in October 202. Chinese use is expected to grow by about 2 percent this year and by 1.6 percent in 2025. After an estimated decline of 3 percent in 2023, world ex-China use this year and in 2025 is expected to increase by 2.4 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively, mainly because of new semis production capacity development in India and a number of other countries.

The ICSG says copper is essential to economic activity and modern society. Also, infrastructure developments in major countries and the global trend toward cleaner energy and electric cars will continue to support copper demand longer term.

World refined copper balance projections indicate a surplus of about 162,000 metric tons for 2024 compared with a surplus of about 467,000 metric tons that it forecast last October. That difference is because of lower-than-anticipated refined copper production. It also is forecasting a surplus of 94,000 metric tons for 2025.

The ICSG will meet again in September.