Turkey neglects US scrap in favor of Russian shipments

A back-and-forth tariff regimen emanating from the administration of President Donald Trump has metal recyclers and other business owners worried about the near-term future of the United States economy and its supply chains.

Steelmaking statistics gathered in the first four months of this year, however, point to a largely stable melt shop situation in the U.S. A source of concern for steel recyclers in the Eastern U.S. can be found further afield, in the first quarter import statistics of the U.S.' largest recycled steel export destination—Turkey.

Recycled steel import figures aggregated by SteelData and reported on in early May by Davis Index show a 23 percent drop in ferrous scrap shipments from the U.S. to Turkey in this year’s first quarter compared with early 2024.

Early this year, Turkish buyers brought in less scrap from most of its largest trading partners, leading to an overall 12 percent decline in recycled steel imports year on year in the first quarter.

The two business information services cite several reasons for the decline, including a 20 percent increase in domestic recycled steel generation within Turkey, owing in part to lingering 2023 earthquake cleanup activity, and a 3 percent drop in Turkish steel output in this year’s first quarter compared with the first three months of last year.

However, at the same time the 23 percent drop in U.S. recycled steel imports was taking place, Turkish mill imports of Russian scrap rose by a sizable 115 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2025, according to SteelData.

Measured by volume, inbound shipments of U.S. recycled steel into Turkey fell by 225,000 metric tons year on year in the first quarter while Russian shipments rose by 97,000 metric tons, SteelData says.

The pivot to Russia seemed to hit U.S. exporters the hardest, along with those in the United Kingdom, where recycled steel shipments fell by 21 percent in this year’s first quarter compared with early 2024.

Among Turkey’s 10 largest ferrous scrap suppliers in early 2025, Belgium, Denmark, France, Lithuania and Romania joined the U.S. and U.K. in seeing decreased shipment volumes, while only the Netherlands and Poland joined Russia in seeing modest volume increases.

A variety of other factors, such as severe weather in much of the U.S., helped recycled steel prices rise on the East Coast in the first three winter months of 2025 despite the Turkish buying slowdown. The shrinking of the Turkish market, however, seems to be apparent in spring month pricing trends.

Prices for bulk shipments of mixed Nos. 1 and 2 heavy melting steel (HMS) from the Port of New York peaked at around $356 per metric ton in late March, according to Davis Index.

Subsequently, East Coast HMS bulk shipment prices dropped $28 per metric ton on average throughout March and then lost another $23 per metric ton in value during April. As of early May, Davis Index has HMS bulk cargoes being purchased from $295-299 per metric ton freight on board (fob) from the port of New York.

Further inland in the U.S. Midwest, a scrap processor and trader contacted by Recycling Today expresses concern about how in-place and looming tariffs will affect both scrap supplies and demand in late spring and into the summer.

“Our flows have been close to normal with a small decrease so far,” the processor says. “Manufacturing has definitely slowed, and scrap outputs are reflecting that.

“The tariffs were rolled out haphazardly, creating uncertainty and confusion. I am concerned that as long as there is lower demand for finished steel the generation of scrap will follow and decrease as well.”

As of early May, steel production figures gathered by the Washington-based American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) do not portray alarming conditions within the domestic steel industry.

Year to date through May 3, however, AISI reports total U.S. steel output of about 29.3 million tons represents a 1.0 percent drop from the more than 29.6 million tons produced in the same time frame in 2024.

On average this year, mills have been operating at a capability utilization (capacity) rate of 74.8 percent, which is down from the 75.9 percent average capacity rate in the comparable time period last year.

Recyclers, along with economists, forecasters and analysts in numerous industry sectors, are gathering information and awaiting reactions tied to a looming early July deadline for the enactment of reciprocal tariff rates on trading partners around the world announced by the Trump administration in early April.

As for steel output, AISI reports in the week ending May 3, U.S. steel output of 1.725 million tons was 1.4 percent higher compared with the 1.701 million tons made during the same week in 2024.

The other potentially encouraging signal is that the late April and early May 2025 weekly figure showed a 1.1 percent increase compared with the previous week ending April 26, when output measured 1.706 million tons.

AISI geographical figures for the week ending May 3 show the South was the leading steel production region in the U.S., having produced 737,000 tons that week, followed by the AISI Great Lakes region with 548,000 tons of output, the Midwest with 237,000 tons and finally the Western region with 71,000 tons of production.