When American households and businesses put a new computer or printer in place, there is now a good chance it is replacing an older model that will be put into storage, disposed of or recycled.
If that is the case, America’s electronics recyclers could see a steady stream of material in 2005, according to estimates compiled by David Daoud of technology advisory firm IDC, Framingham, Mass. Daoud provided a summary of an IDC forecast of technology spending trends to attendees of the E-Scrap 2004 conference, held in October in Minneapolis.
IDC believes a convergence of platforms (computers, cellular phones, PDAs and television programming) will continue, and that businesses will soon ramp up IT spending to replace machines purchased several years ago to ensure Y2K compliance.
“Resilient” household consumers have been “the major driver” of tech spending for the last several years, said Daoud. But “a new refresh cycle is starting” in terms of corporate IT spending—one that will replace machines purchased for the Y2K cycle.
Globally, the Asia Pacific region is in the midst of an electronics spending boom that is greatly increasing computer usage around the world.
An IDC forecast looking at active units of various types of electronic equipment predicts that the number of laptop computers in use worldwide will rise from 134 million this year to more than 265 million in 2008. The global use of cellular telephones will also escalate.
Price deflation for electronics is also predicted by IDC, which sees laptop price averages falling more than $200 between now and 2008, and desktop computer prices in the U.S. averaging less than $520 in 2008.
Daoud and IDC see the growing average age of current systems, better pricing and a demand for wireless access as fueling computer purchases in the near term. Possible hindrances include high software costs, a weak economy and an attitude that current systems, though old, are still “good enough.”
On the entertainment side, an interest in household media centers and the need to have high-definition televisions is helping the electronic entertainment sector.
Daoud says he sees the easing of economic uncertainties after the election as a key. “Business will pick up post election,” he remarked. “Prices are so low, it has helped quite a bit.”