China will lead the world in its growth rate to consume finished steel in 2003, while the rest of the world will hold a steadier line.
That’s the conclusion reached by the International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI), in the latest forecast by its IISI Committee on Economic Studies. The forecast summarizes economic conditions and the apparent consumption of finished steel products for the years 2002 and 2003.
The forecast was presented by IISI Secretary General Ian Christmas at the group’s 36th Annual Conference, held last week in Rome.
“At the moment, I have the impression that the economic recovery is stalling and forecasts for the rest of the year and next year should be revised downwards,” Christmas told the assembled IISI delegates. “The global economic picture is currently clouded with great uncertainty. This situation has made it almost impossible to predict economic developments over the next two years with any degree of accuracy,” he remarked.
In terms of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the global projection is for 1.7 percent growth in 2002 and 2.9 percent growth for 2003, compared to the 1.1 percent growth experienced in 2001. This current forecast is slightly down from the one made by IISI in April, which suggested a global growth rate of 2 percent in 2002 and 3.4 percent in 2003.
A significant factor in all the figures is the economic activity in China, estimated to rise an impressive 7.5 percent in 2002 and by 7.8 percent in 2003. This compares to 7.3 percent in 2001 and 8 percent in 2000. In comparison, the growth rate for the rest of the world is projected to be 1.6 percent in 2002 and 2.8 percent in 2003. Figures for 2001 showed a growth rate of 0.9 percent.
The global outlook for steel reflects these predictions. World consumption of finished steel products is projected to increase by 4.2 percent (or 32 million metric tons) to 802 million metric tons in 2002 and by another 4.9 percent (or 39 million metric tons) to 841 million metric tons in 2003.
More than half of the steel consumption growth can be attributed to China. Finished steel consumption in China is estimated to increase by 25 million metric tons (or 14.8 percent) in 2002 and by 20 million metric tons (or 10.3 percent) in 2003. China has increased its share of global steel consumption from 13.5 percent in 1995 to a projected 25.6 percent in 2003.
Steel consumption in the rest of the world, excluding China, is estimated to increase by a modest 1.2 percent in 2002 and a slightly healthier 3.1 percent in 2003.
The IISI, based in Brussels, is a non-profit research organization whose members are steel-producing companies, national or regional federations and steel research organizations in more than 50 nations.