Consumption of steel will end the year strong and continue to grow in 2005, according to the International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI).
IISI Secretary General Ian Christmas presented forecasts for economic growth and Apparent Steel Consumption at the 38th Annual IISI Conference in Istanbul on Oct. 4. His remarks are summarized in the October issue of the South East Asia Iron and Steel Institute Newsletter.
IISI estimates global steel consumption will range between 987.8 million metric tons and 997.8 million metric tons in 2005¾a 3.9 to 5 percent increase from 2004.
IISI also forecasts worldwide economic growth in 2005, although at a slower rate of 3.4 percent compared to 4.7 percent in 2004.
China will have consumed 263 million metric tons of steel by the end of 2004, leading the world in steel consumption, according to IISI. China also remains the world’s largest producer of crude steel, making 170 milli
on metric tons in the first eight months of 2004, a 21.1 percent increase over its 2003 numbers.
According to IISI, Japan is again a growing force in the steel market. IISI estimates Japanese demand for steel will grow 4.5 percent by the year’s end. IISI also expects steel consumption in Latin America to increase by 6.4 percent in 2004, with Argentina and Brazil leading the way. In 2005, Central and South American consumption of steel is expected to grow another 5.6 percent, according to IISI.
NAFTA countries will consume 3 percent more steel in 2005, according to IISI’s figures.
Although IISI expects the world’s economy to have expanded by 4.7 percent by the end of 2004 and to grow another 3.4 percent in 2005, Christmas said rising oil prices and commodity costs could stifle projected growth.