Even though nickel producers have some new mining projects underway, the current tilt toward more demand than supply could stay in place in the nickel sector through 2005.
A panel of speakers assembled in early September by the Pittsburgh Chapter of the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries Inc. (ISRI) for its annual Nickel-Stainless Roundtable noted that demand from China and reviving U.S. and Japanese economies should keep nickel prices aloft and the demand strong for stainless steel scrap.
“The outlook for nickel is still fundamentally strong for the next two years,” said John Vorberger, Sales and Marketing Manager of Special Products with Eramet North America, Coraopolis, Pa.
Vorberger conceded that tighter credit rules in China are slowing down that nation’s metal production growth from the double-digit rates of 2002 and 2003, but noted that the nation has now joined the family of the world’s major consumers of nickel and nickel-bearing scrap.
Stainless steel makers in the U.S., Western Europe and East Asia are now competing for what Eramet believes are tighter supplies of stainless steel scrap. Scrap exports from the former Soviet Union had kept the market fed, but that vein could be nearly tapped out. “A lot of that material has apparently been depleted over the last decade or so,” said Vorberger.
The production of mined nickel ore to help feed global demand for stainless steel and finished nickel is not scheduled to increase until 2006, when an expansion of Eramet’s mine and smelter in New Caledonia will be complete. Between 2007 and 2010, two major production facilities—including Inco’s Voisey Bay project in Canada—should help boost the supply of nickel ore.
Former nickel trader Martin Abbott, now publisher of American Metal Market, New York, remarked that several potential problems could cause nickel demand and pricing to recede in the next several years, although the emergence of industrial economies in China and India remain formidable growth factors.
Less certain, said Abbott, is the health of the U.S. economy, particularly that of household consumers carrying significant debt loads. “How much longer can U.S. consumers support this—and the global—economy?” he wondered, noting that the month of July brought yet another increase in average household debt.
Abbott expressed concern that federal government deficits could bring increased interest rates that will hit individuals carrying large amounts of credit card debt particularly hard.
He also noted that speculators in the nickel market are concerned about the potential of Russian government interference in the affairs of the Norilsk metals company, similar to what has happened with Russia’s Yukos petroleum company.
By and large, though, Abbott commented that these are enjoyable times for metals companies. “Maybe we’re finally getting some kind of metallic revenge. In the late 1990s, with the dot-com boom bringing full employment to other sectors, the metals industry was looked down upon because it was ‘old economy.’ Now, finally, it’s worth investing in metals again. The industry is catching up after [several] years of underperformance.”
Additional speakers at the Roundtable included Andrew Wallace of Allegheny Technologies Inc., Pittsburgh, who encouraged scrap recyclers to package special blends of scrap that will arrive at stainless mills ready to be used as furnace charge.
And Daniel Marx of the New York office of Considar Inc. noted that the price for its ferrochrome products has more than doubled, going from 32 cents per pound in January of 2003 to 74 cents per pound in April of 2004. Marx told attendees that while prices may have peaked, they should not expect them to drop significantly in the near-term, as demand continues to exceed supply. South African chromium exporters continue to sell into a global market with a de-valued rand, which is discouraging them from increasing their production levels.