SDI predicts Q4 earnings greater than in 2024

Steel Dynamics Inc. (SDI) has provided fourth quarter 2025 earnings guidance in the range of $1.65 to $1.69 per diluted share, representing a roughly 39 percent decline compared with $2.74 per diluted share earnings in this year’s third quarter.

The predicted per share profits for the current quarter, however, would represent an increase of about 23 percent compared with fourth quarter 2024 earnings of $1.36 per diluted share.

“Fourth quarter 2025 profitability from the company’s steel operations is expected to be meaningfully lower than sequential third quarter results due to lower average realized selling values and lower volumes related to both seasonal demand and planned maintenance outages at the company’s flat rolled steel mills,” SDI says.

The Fort Wayne, Indiana-based company also acknowledges some of the planned maintenance outages were longer than originally anticipated and decreased volume in the fourth quarter by an estimated 140,000 to 150,000 tons of flat-rolled steel production.

Another factor in its fourth quarter results involves average published indexed hot-rolled steel prices that decreased by more than $70 per ton from July to October of this year, lowering the company’s fourth quarter sequential flat-rolled steel selling values due to commercial contracts that price on a lagging indexed basis.

According to SDI, more recently flat-rolled steel prices have improved, with the company crediting import volumes that have declined while underlying demand has been seasonally steady.

SDI expects fourth quarter 2025 earnings from its OmniSource metals recycling operations to be lower compared with the prior quarter based on lower seasonal shipments tied to planned seasonal maintenance outages at U.S. steel mills, which reduced ferrous scrap demand.

“Overall ferrous and nonferrous pricing also declined sequentially,” SDI says, although recycled steel prices  rebounded this month, according to Raw Material Data Aggregation Service (RMDAS) transactions tracked by MSA Inc.

SDI also expects fourth quarter 2025 earnings from its steel fabrication operations to be lower compared with the previous quarter, based on seasonally lower shipments more than offsetting modest metal spread expansion.

The company says order backlogs for its finished steel and its building and construction products extend well into the second quarter of 2026, with healthy pricing.

"Current order activity is steady with expectations for improved volumes in 2026, as interest rates decline and the support from the U.S. infrastructure program and onshoring are expected to positively impact demand for not only steel joist and deck products, but also for flat-rolled and long product steel," the company continues.

“The aluminum team is continuing with the successful commissioning and startup of the company’s Columbus, Mississippi, aluminum flat-rolled products mill and San Luis Potosi [Mexico] satellite recycled slab center.”

The company says it has successfully produced finished products for the industrial and beverage can sectors and has produced aluminum hot band and received related qualifications for its use in automotive applications

SDI plans to release its fourth quarter 2025 results Jan. 26, 2026, and to hold a conference call the same day.