Rusal reports strong 2015 profits

Russia-based aluminium producer Rusal Plc has reported decreased revenue but increased profits in 2015 compared to 2014. Although Rusal says its 2015 revenue of $8.67 billion was down 7.2% compared to the year before, its net profit of $671 million was up considerably from the $17 million in profits it recorded in 2014.

Rusal’s fourth quarter, however, may be pointing to trouble to come in 2015, as its revenue fell by 25.6% compared to the fourth quarter of 2014 and it suffered what it calls a recurring net loss of $40 million in the quarter.

In the news release accompanying its 2015 full-year and fourth quarter results, the company notes that the 2015 London Metals Exchange (LME) aluminium price average of $1,495 per tonne in the fourth quarter of 2015, “demonstrate[ed] a 24% decrease compared to $1,968 per tonne in the fourth quarter of the prior year.”

Rusal says it “expects that global aluminum demand will continue its growth at a healthy 5.7% during 2016 as a result of a strong demand growth in North America, Europe and Asia. The transportation sector will continue to be the biggest growth contribution in 2016 followed by construction and electrical/consumer durables and packaging sectors.”

On the supply side, Rusal says “Chinese aluminium production is forecasted to grow at the slowest pace over the last five years, by 4.8% in 2016 compared to five-year average growth at 12% and 9.6% in 2015.”

At the current price, Rusal estimates “that around 5 million tonnes of smelting capacity [in] China continues to be loss-making. Consequently, the rest of the world’s aluminum production is forecasted to decline by 100,000 tonnes in 2016 as compared to 2015.”

The company continues, “Chinese semis export growth is expected to slow down further in 2016 as compared to 2015 on lower price arbitrage due to a much lower premium expectation in the rest of the world and higher Shanghai Future Exchange pricing linked to local capacity curtailments.”

In that case, says the Russian producer, “The total primary market balance will turn into a deficit of 1.2 million tonnes in 2016 as compared to 0.6 million tonnes of surplus in 2015.”