ReMA 2025: More recovered paper being consumed domestically

With several notable containerboard mill projects and conversions creating more domestic demand for recovered paper the last few years, more tons are being consumed domestically than previously seen, according to Jeff Ryalls, vice president of recycled fibers at Foxborough, Massachusetts-based International Forest Products.

Ryalls presented during the Spotlight on Paper session at the Recycled Materials Association (ReMA) 2-25 Convention and Exposition, held May 12-15 in San Diego.

“As everyone knows, we’ve seen a lot of conversions in the U.S. marketplace,” Ryalls said. “With those conversions, there’s been more [recovered] paper being consumed domestically than we’ve historically seen.”

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Ryalls revealed figures that show U.S. virgin containerboard market capacity is down about 1 million tons from 2014 to 2025, shrinking from 24.6 million tons to 23.3 million tons.

Meanwhile, U.S. recycled containerboard market capacity is up about 3.4 million tons over the same period, increasing from 11.3 million tons to 14.7 million tons.

Overall U.S. containerboard production has increased from 35.9 million tons in 2015 to 38 million tons in 2024, Ryalls said, noting six virgin containerboard mill closures and five recycled containerboard startups since 2022.

The increase in U.S. recycled containerboard production has in turn prompted more recovered paper to stay within the U.S. market, with Ryalls saying exports have trended down since the “high-watermark year” of 2018.

“If we really take a look at the export volumes from 2012 through 2024, we see a pretty steep decline of 4 million tons,” he said. “Obviously, there are some mill groups that use a lot of mixed paper that have built some mills the last couple of years, so that's really taken a lot of the mixed paper that was historically in the export markets and kept that grade domestically.”

Exports of printing and writing grades also have declined “pretty significantly” over that period, with Ryalls citing the rise of digital media and smart devices.

“We all know that story,” he said.

When looking at U.S. corrugated export rates, Ryalls presented U.S. Census figures that show a 28 percent decline, or 3.46 million tons, since 2018—going from approximately 12.5 million tons to about 9 million tons.

As previously a major importer of U.S. recovered paper, China’s ban on scrap shipments implemented in 2018 obviously brought on much of this decline, and though Ryalls said Southeast Asia and other Asian markets have partially offset the loss of the Chinese market, it hasn’t been enough to make up for it entirely.

“We’ve seen a 28 percent decline since 2008 … on the corrugated side leaving the country, so more tons are staying [in the U.S.] with all the new capacity online,” he said.

Ryalls broke it down further, examining export figures on the East Coast versus the West Coast.

According to his presentation, in 2012, there were almost 12 million tons of recovered paper exported from the West Coast compared with last year’s 5.8 million tons. On the East Coast, exports were down from 8 million tons in 2012 to 5 million tons in 2024.

“That’s just tied to more tons staying home,” Ryalls said, noting just a slight uptick in exports to Canada and Mexico since 2021.

In Europe, Ryalls said there is “a significant amount of movement” across the continent.

“They’re going through what we went through the past couple years with a lot of new paper machines, so their export volumes are actually dropping out of Europe, with more tons staying home, supporting their investments,” he said.

ReMA figures support Ryalls’ presentation, too.

According to the Washington-based organization, recovered paper exports were down all of 2023 and through the first half of 2024 (full-year figures are not yet available for 2024), with some of the top 10 importers decreasing their purchases by up to 50 percent.

The top 10 countries importing recovered paper from the U.S., according to 2024 ReMA data, include: India, Thailand, Mexico, Malaysia, Vietnam, Canada, South Korea, China, Taiwan and Indonesia.