Plastics market turbulence could continue in new year

Plastics recyclers encountered volatile markets last year as they competed against the oversupply of virgin resins and a steady stream of low-cost imports, as well as frequently changing United States trade policies that gave buyers pause.

Those looking for measures of relief in the early months of this year are unlikely to find it.

According to Andrea Bassetti, Americas team lead, Recycled Plastics, at London-based commodities consulting firm ICIS, 2025 was marked by an abundance of supply and weak demand for most resin types, and that could continue into the first quarter of this year.

“There was a lot of unexpected volatility [last year] that made it quite difficult for any stakeholders to make decisions past the month that was right in front of them with tariffs,” she says, adding that virgin and recycled polyethylene terephthalate (PET), for example, were initially exempt from the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariff regimen before a change in September.

“Along with not being able to plan out effectively, I think that introduced a level of uncertainty in an already struggling market where demand was softer than expected and supply was pretty ample. That was sort of the cherry on top that caused a lot of cascading impacts that have brought us where we are today and where we might go in 2026, which is probably another soft year on the demand side with pretty heavy supply.”

Based on trade data compiled by the U.S. government, Bassetti notes that imports of polyethylene and PET decreased in September—the last month data was published—but whether it has become a trend is not yet known.

“Our expectation is some of those trade numbers are going to decrease a little bit, maybe in the 10-20 percent range” she says. “However, imported material still provides some advantages to some domestic material. For example, on the PET side, the quality of imported material seems to be a lot higher for a pretty comparable price, so it’s still a very attractive option.”

Seasonality also will affect markets in the early months of this year, as MRFs destock toward the end of the year and collection slows in winter months.

“I think we’ll see some price increases, but I wouldn’t say it’s a show of stronger demand,” Bassetti says. “If anything, I’d say it’s a show of supply being a little tighter as you start the new year.”

Market volatility also has been acknowledged by the National Association of PET Container Resources (NAPCOR), which released its "2024 PET Recycling Report" in December. In the annual report, the Middleton, Wisconsin-based organization notes the PET bottle recycling rate decreased to 30.2 percent in 2024 from 32.5 percent the year before.

Additionally, NAPCOR reports sales of rPET to U.S. and Canadian end markets declined 3 percent from 2023, while rPET imports reached an all-time high, accounting for 23 percent of total rPET supply. The average amount of rPET content in U.S. PET bottles measured 15.9 percent in 2024, down slightly from 2023 due to increased volumes of virgin PET in the market.

There also was encouraging news. The report says total reclaimer inputs of postconsumer PET bottles increased 1 percent, while PET thermoform recovery rose 52 percent over 2023 to 264 million pounds.

The report claims a rise in recycling system efficiency in the U.S. and Canada, noting that the ratio of recovered outputs from PET reclamation to incoming material increased from 81.5 percent in 2023 to 85.2 percent in 2024.

“Despite ongoing market pressures, the 2024 PET recycling rate reflects the resilience of North America’s domestic reclaimers,” says Tom Busard, NAPCOR board chair, chief polymers and recycling officer for Plastipak Packaging Inc., and president of Plastipak recycling affiliate Clean Tech. “The data also underscore the importance of strengthening domestic recycling infrastructure, expanding recovery of all PET packaging formats and ensuring policies that support reliable end markets for recycled material.”

Improving markets would be a welcome sight this year, particularly when it comes to rPET. In 2025, four major recyclers of the material closed their doors, the most recent being Bowling Green, Ohio-based Phoenix Technologies International LLC, which closed one of its two facilities in the Northwest Ohio city Nov. 20, laying off seven. At full capacity, the reclaimer had the ability to process 140 million pounds of PET per year.

In a Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification filed with the state in November, Phoenix says it took measures to avoid the closure, including cost reductions with suppliers and vendors, negotiating better pricing and reducing expenses and overhead costs.

Phoenix began manufacturing rPET pellets from postconsumer flake in 1992 and expanded its operations in 2015 to include flake production. In 2019, the company was purchased by Taiwan-based plastics producer Far Eastern New Century Corp and completed a major capacity upgrade in 2023.