IDTechEx predicts REE recovery growth

In an analysis published this month, England-based IDTechEx forecasts the size of the critical material recovery market will exceed $66 billion in value and 8,150 metric tons in volume per year by 2046, as demand, volume and regulatory pressures all grow.

IDTechEx says lithium-ion batteries and rare earth magnets are set to become key secondary sources of critical materials, as commercially mature recycling technology capacity scales in anticipation of growing volume becoming available in the 2030s.

Unlike ores with specific, limited and often remote locations, secondary sources are typically available at the point of consumption, require substantially lower capital investment to develop and are circular and sustainable, according to the research firm.

“Differing recycling technology approaches are emerging to enable recovery from waste," the analysis says. Long-loop magnet recycling using scalable hydrometallurgical processing, solvent extraction and liquid chromatography affords separated rare earth salts for resale into diverse application verticals.”

According to the analysis, annual critical battery material demand is expected to triple by 2035 as lithium-ion batteries remain a leading technology within consumer electronics, electric vehicles and energy storage systems. IDTechEx says pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical technologies are commercially available for recycling nickel, cobalt, copper, lithium and manganese, and emerging direct lithium-ion battery recycling technologies may offer a cheaper alternative for regenerating cathode materials.”

Regarding risks to investors, IDTechEx mentions the lithium carbonate market in the past three years as a case when battery material oversupply has placed downward pressure on commodity prices, squeezing the value recoverable from lithium-ion battery recycling, and profit margins for recyclers.

Nonetheless, the company predicts the global critical material recovery market will grow at a 9.2 percent compound annual growth rate until 2046, and critical battery material recycling and rare earth recovery represent the highest growth opportunities.