Metals trade group foresees slower conditions

Findings from an April survey of members of the Cleveland-based Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) indicate that expectations for increased economic activity have declined for three consecutive months.

Of the 99 United States and Canadian companies surveyed this month, 16 percent anticipate an increase in economic activity in the next three months, a figure that is down from 23 percent compared with PMA's March survey.

While 47 percent of survey respondents predict no change in activity in the next three months compared with 54 percent in March, about 37 percent expect a decrease in activity is looming—up from 23 percent who responded that way in March.

Offering better news, PMA members say their current average daily shipping levels in April have shown a modest rebound this month, with 44 percent reporting an increase in shipping levels, up from 35 percent in March.

Some metal stamping firms and other formers are concerned about a drop in incoming orders, with 26 percent of April survey respondents anticipating a decline in orders in the next three months. An approximately equal number of respondents, 27 percent, are expecting an increase in orders in that time frame.

“Metalformers are navigating continued economic uncertainty, with declining confidence in near-term conditions and softening order volumes,” PMA President David Klotz says. “Ongoing unpredictability surrounding U.S. trade policy is likely a major factor behind these forecasts—particularly the widening gap between U.S. steel prices and those in the rest of the world, which impacts a key input for our members.”

He says reshoring could provide reasons for optimism this year, but sees a disconnect between that goal and the elimination of some federal technology and equipment funding programs.

“Some [PMA members] are seeing increased interest from customers looking to reshore production as a result of the tariffs, which is encouraging,” Klotz continues. “However, proposals to eliminate critical programs like the federal Manufacturing Extension Partnership are deeply concerning. If we want to strengthen domestic manufacturing and compete globally, we need continued support for programs that help small and medium-sized manufacturers modernize and innovate.”