Paper Stock Markets Still Wait for Catalyst

There doesn’t appear to be much in the way of any catalyst to light the paper stock market on fire. The only positive sign being expressed at the present time is the fact that prices for most grades have found their bottom level.

Bulk grades, notably old corrugated containers, seem to be bumping at or close to their bottom level. Whether there will be an upswing this fall is still uncertain. The growing sense from many paper stock dealers is that there will be little sign of an improvement through the rest of this year.

Most packers feel that there could be a modest increase in OCC prices, perhaps as soon as next month. However, the increase will unlikely cause any strong move by mills to buy more aggressively.

Downtime continues to be the trend, with mills throughout North America taking extended downtime to remove capacity. This trend is not expected to change any time soon, especially as demand from consumers remains lackluster.

The most recent figures from the Fibre Box Association show both shipments and consumption declining for the most recently reported month. More recent declines don’t appear to be easing back either, with more vendors reporting sharper drops in movement throughout the country.

Exports show even larger problems for the paper stock industry. Orders have been slowing. Adding to the difficulties, there are a growing number of companies reporting claims filings. This move is creating some sizable problems for those paper stock dealers who have shipped material offshore, and adds to the overall lackluster market for most paper stock grades lately.