One Billion and Counting

The International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI), Brussels, has forecast that the total use of finished steel products in 2005 will exceed 1 billion metric tons for the first time. Total world demand is forecast to grow by 3.7 percent in 2005, an increase of 36 million metric tons compared to 2004.

Growth in China will lead the way, with IISI predicting growth of more than 10 percent,  with steel use in that nation reaching 293 million metric tons this year.

The IISI forecast calls for China to account for 29 percent of total steel demand and nearly 80 percent of world growth in 2005. Growth in the rest of the world will hover around 1 percent, or just 8 million metric tons.

In 2006, IISI forecasts the use of finished steel products will again grow, this time by 4.8 percent, reaching 1.05 billion metric tons. A recovery in the world’s economic activity will guarantee growth in steel demand in a wider range of countries, IISI forecasters predict. In addition to continuing growth of 9.2 percent in China, the forecast is for growth rates of 9.4 percent in Brazil, 6.2 percent in the Middle East, and 6.4 percent in India.

During 2005/2006, the broad pattern of small but positive real growth in steel demand will continue in the industrialized countries. This will be combined with faster rates of growth in developing countries. China will remain the dominant influence in world steel demand.