Nonferrous Looks to Continue Run

At the same time, as prices for some commodities continue to climb, more representatives express concern that any correction could be quite damaging.

In his opening remarkets, Marc Natan, president of BIR’s Non-Ferrous Metal Division, opted to focus on the positive.

The following are his remarks: “Looking for explanations is like looking for a needle in a haystack. I keep on having to remind myself that booms inevitably come to an end because, for months now, the markets have been proving us wrong. So I am going to spoil myself and leave this column for good news only. Perhaps when you come to read these few lines, the market may have proved me wrong again. So what!

World growth is accelerating and will reach almost 5 percent this year, according to the International Monetary Fund. This will mean the fourth consecutive year of strong expansion to the benefit of non-ferrous metals. Furthermore, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil has been achieving new records. We owe this growth to the emerging countries - notably including China, India and Russia - where activity levels are truly remarkable.

On top of this excellent economic situation, production deficits are expected in the non-ferrous sector this year even though analysts had been forecasting surpluses.

Furthermore, investment has been too slow in coming forward and geopolitical risks have increased the level of market tension. Raw materials have become a point of refuge for investors - just like gold at the beginning of the last century. They are serving as a barometer of the world climate. The funds not only follow this trend but also enhance it.

Most surprising to me is the fact that, despite prices having reached historic highs, there is always a willing buyer in some part of the world.

Very soon we will be meeting for our Spring Convention in Beijing where, in conjunction with our experts, we will have the opportunity to examine many subjects.

One issue hot off the press is the decision by the Indian authorities to copy almost exactly the registration system implemented by the Chinese for overseas suppliers of secondary raw materials. We are planning a workshop to keep you up to date with the latest news and developments.

Commentary on non-ferrous markets also are provided by representatives from China, India, South Africa, Russia, the Middle East, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, and Nordic countries.

The full report is available to members of the Bureau of International Recycling, and can be found at the Members Only section at www.bir.org.