Nickel Defies Gravity
Although much of the talk in the scrap industry has been on the high-wire act displayed by copper, the nickel market has far outstripped historical norms. And, according to presentations given by several speakers at ISRI 2007 Convention & Exhibition, the future could continue to push nickel to even greater heights.
Dr. Mo Ahmadzadeh, president of New York City-based Mitsui Bussan Commodities, touched on the fundamental realities driving the nickel market. A key, as it seems similarly in most every other base metal, has been China’s positioning. Ahmadzadeh noted that China needed stainless, but shifted grades and was exporting more.
Looking at the statistics for the metal, last year’s worldwide stainless steel production increased by 13.5 percent to 28.1 million metric tons. Further, throughout the next three years, stainless steel production is expected to climb at a 5 percent rate per year.
Responding to the surging demand for nickel, Ahmadzadeh noted that seven large projects have a chance to be developed in the next four years, bringing around 250,000 additional metric tons on the market.
Meanwhile, the surge in nickel prices has resulted in some consumers looking to blend more pig iron and/or scrap in the mix. However, Ahmadzadeh said that scrap supplies were presently capped.
As a result of surging demand and insufficient new capacity, supply deficits are expected to continue.
An even more bullish outlook came from Jason Schenker with Wachovia. While acknowledging that the growth for nickel will be lower this year than last year, business should still be good. This, despite his opinion that the U.S. economy hit a "soft patch" during the first quarter of the year. However, he expects to see the economy "picking up in the back half." Further, Schenker said he felt that the global nickel growth would be above trend, with growth likely to continue.
A key driver for continued improvements in the nickel market is greater focus on energy efficiencies and the resultant trend toward sustainable environmental practices.
The growth in the use of hybrid vehicles is one area that is helping boost nickel demand. The number of these vehicles produced is expected to continue increasing.
One potential downside to the soaring price for nickel is the talk about some consumers looking to substitute other materials, perhaps lower grades of stainless. While there have been some moves to incorporate more 200-series stainless steel in some applications, analysts said there would still be a need for many consumers to continue using the higher-value 300 series of stainless steel for its high corrosion resistance and malleability.
(Additional news about nonferrous scrap, including breaking news and consuming industry reports, is available online at www.RecyclingToday.com.)
Xstrata Sells Off Aluminum Assets
Xstrata plc, which is based in Switzerland, has announced the sale of Xstrata Aluminum, comprising all of Xstrata’s aluminum interests, to Apollo Management LP, based in New York City, for $1.15 billion.
Xstrata Aluminum was created from the former Falconbridge Group’s aluminum assets, known as Noranda Aluminum, following Xstrata’s acquisition of Falconbridge Ltd. last year. The sell-off follows a review in which the company determined the best course of action for the aluminum division.
The former Noranda Aluminum includes a 100 percent owned primary smelter in New Madrid, Tenn., and three rolling mills in Tennessee, North Carolina and Arkansas, together with a 50 percent interest in the Gramercy aluminum refinery in Louisiana and St. Ann bauxite mine in Jamaica, both of which are owned through a joint venture with Century Aluminum Inc.
Mick Davis, Xstrata chief executive, says: "The sale of Xstrata’s aluminum assets represents the successful conclusion of the in-depth review of the business we commenced shortly after Xstrata took control of Falconbridge in August 2006."
In deciding to sell off the division, Xstrata said it determined that while the Noranda Aluminum division was profitable, it wasn’t profitable enough to allow the company to grow the operations and did not have enough size or upstream exposure to make any expansion worthwhile.
Alcoa Explores Aluminum Mega-Deal
Alcoa, North America’s largest aluminum company, is preparing a bid to acquire Alcan Inc. in a deal that would consolidate North America’s two largest aluminum producers.
According to a Reuters report, Pittsburgh-based Alcoa is preparing an estimated $27 billion offer for Montreal-based Alcan. The bid, considered hostile from the point of view of Alcan’s management, is being prepared after lengthy talks between the two did not produce an agreement.
"We are very disappointed that those efforts did not result in a negotiated transaction—a conclusion we would have strongly preferred," Alcoa chairman and CEO Alain J.P. Belda said.
If the two companies were to combine, it would create the world’s largest producer of aluminum, according to Reuters, surpassing Russian company Rusal.
"We believe firmly in the compelling strategic rationale behind the combination of Alcoa and Alcan and are convinced that this transaction creates substantial value for both sets of shareholders and for our customers around the world," added Belda in his statement. "We are therefore taking our offer directly to Alcan shareholders."
Some observers have questioned whether the two North American companies can clear anti-trust hurdles, which is why Australia’s BHP Billiton was at one time considered a more likely buyer of Alcan.
German Copper Firm Considers Opening U.S. Plant
According to Reuters, Norddeutsche Affinerie (NA), the largest copper producer in Europe, is considering building a copper recycling plant in Louisiana.
Norddeutsche is in talks with the state government about building a plant between Baton Rouge and New Orleans, according to CEO Werner Marnette.
The project would be similar to Norddeutsche’s copper recycling facility in Luenen, Germany, which produces about 180,000 metric tons of copper cathodes annually.
"The Americans have closed all their copper recycling, and the U.S. exports enormous volumes of computer and electro scrap to China every year," Marnette says. "This project would be a step to assisting the U.S. to secure its raw materials supplies."
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