Nonferrous

Some Good News at Last?

After a long stretch of one-way price movement, both copper and aluminum experienced what nonferrous processors hoped would be some lasting gains in early April.

But those price increases may have been based on moves by speculators, rather than fundamental improvements in the supply-demand situations of either metal.

Michael Newman of Alusuisse Aluminum America Inc., Fair Lawn, N.J., spoke at the ISRI Annual Convention’s Spotlight on Aluminum. He said the early April price run-up was “due largely to trading mentality” rather than because of fundamental changes in the market.

According to Parks Dodd, Aluminomics LLC, Knoxville, Tenn., the current slowdown in global economic growth is the predominant factor influencing commodities prices. “The trend in world economic growth is for 3% annual growth,” Dodd said. “Right now, it is at a 1.5% growth pace.” He noted Japan was experiencing negative growth at –1%. He added cynically  many forecasters “have been saying that Japan will pick up in six months for well over the last six months.”

Dodd sees “no respite from Russian metals exporting in sight,” though optimists can hope that China will begin absorbing more metal.