Trade group predicts nickel surplus

The Lisbon-based International Nickel Study Group (INSG) says several market factors could lead to a forecasted surplus of 198,000 metric tons of nickel produced compared with what is consumed in 2025. The INSG forecast was released after the group held a meeting in Lisbon in late April.

“Changes to national policies, namely related to trade [will] probably contribute to a higher level of uncertainty regarding raw materials markets,” INSG says in a summary of its meeting notes.

Despite delays in the issuance of nickel mining permits in Indonesia, the INSG says, “On the production side, it is anticipated that the output of different types of nickel product will continue to increase in 2025.”

The organization predicts Indonesian output of nickel pig iron (NPI), mixed hydroxide precipitate from high pressure acid leaching plants, nickel matte converted from NPI, nickel cathode and nickel sulphate all will increase this year.

“In China, primary nickel output is also forecast to increase, driven by additional nickel cathode and nickel sulphate production,” the INSG adds, though it expects NPI production there to continue to decline.

On the demand side, the INSG expects further growth in stainless steel production in 2025. In the first nine months of 2024, stainless producers globally outpaced the previous year’s output by more than 5 percent, according to the Brussels-based Worldstainless organization.

“The expansion of nickel use in batteries has been slower than predicted, mostly due to the increased relative use of nonnickel containing batteries (mainly lithium iron phosphate) and higher demand for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (EVs) at the expense of battery EVs,” the INSG says.

The group also says new ternary precursor cathode active material projects in different parts of the world will support a rise in nickel usage in the future.

World primary nickel production was 3.363 million metric tons (mmt) in 2023, reached 3.526 mmt in 2024 and is forecast to reach 3.735 mmt in 2025, concludes the INSG.

The INSG forecasts global nickel consumption of 3.537 mmt in 2025, producing an “implicit market balance” surplus of 198,000 metric tons in 2025. That would follow an implicit surplus of nearly 350,000 metric tons in the previous two years combined.