Navigate Commodities questions timing of Chinese steel data

Atilla Widnell, the founder and managing director of Singapore-based Navigate Commodities, says his company’s blast furnace heat mapping findings point to a discrepancy with steelmaking statistics issued by a Chinese government agency and a media group based in that country.

In a mid-December LinkedIn post, Widnell writes, “Navigate Commodities believes Chinese pig iron and hot metal production actually increases in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter each year.”

He says data gathered by Navigate, which uses satellite imaging and vessel tracking information to provide customers with details on markets for iron ore, ferrous scrap and other commodities, has led him to what he calls a potentially “hugely unpopular opinion” that involves “putting my neck on the line” concerning genuine circumstances in the iron ore market.

In his post, Widnell questions the promptness of data gathered and issued by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in the People’s Republic of China and weekly production figures published each week by “you know who.” While Widnell never identifies the second party, it fits the description of Singapore-based MySteel Global Pte Ltd., which publishes daily and weekly output figures for the Chinese steel industry based on its own surveys.

According to Widnell, the global steel and iron ore sectors have followed the daily and weekly figures posted by “you know who,” which typically are confirmed by the “all-encompassing monthly national” steelmaking figures issued by NBS.

Those figures, as they are this year, typically portray a Chinese steel sector that cuts production from October through November. Yet, writes Widnell, “Every year (almost) without fail, iron ore futures tend to trade high[er] in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter.”

Continues, Widnell, “No wonder the whole market is scratching its head at iron ore price performance versus demand indicators.”

For recycled steel generators, processors and traders, if this discrepancy is accurate and occurs again in 2025, it could mean hopes that steel output is genuinely declining in China because of global pressure regarding its overcapacity may be false and based on temporary third quarter output cuts. (Potentially offering hope, however, is a recently introduced export quota policy.)

Regarding the perceived annual statistical discrepancy, Widnell says it is not necessarily an attempt by any parties to use a market information advantage to secure profits. “We don't think it’s intentional,” he writes.

Continues Widnell, “We believe there’s potentially a roughly two-month lag, as data has to be collected and collated” from companies to districts to cities to provinces “for every blast furnace across China before it becomes a national number.”

The company managing director acknowledges Navigate, being in the information business itself, is “obviously biased in our opinion as we’ve got skin in the game, [as] we’re promoting the use of daily thermal satellite imagery.”

He defends his company’s findings when writing, “Here’s the kicker: You can’t fake huge heat signals (or lack of them). We’re tracking 229 blast furnaces across China—daily.”

That tracking, continues Widnell, shows daily Chinese hot metal output rising from mid-October 2025 through to this December.

“In fact, our eight-year daily historical archive says fourth quarter output is greater than that in the third quarter in most years, based on real heat signatures,” says Widnell. That conclusion could make sense in a supply chain in which manufacturers choose to stock up on steel just before the first quarter Chinese New Year two-week period, when steelmakers, steel service centers and freight companies operate at reduced capacity.

Both asking and answering the question, “Why does this reporting lag matter?” Widnell finishes his post by writing that traders in the steel supply chain who hedge using futures contracts should align that risk “with live blast furnace heat” tracking, while on the physical trading side “pace sales to visible production ramps, not lagged confirmations.”