Recovered Fiber, North American Export Market

OCC is hot. Prices went up quite a bit on The Yellow Sheet this month. I am sure it is more of a lack of supply than it is demand, although from everything I hear, China is actively buying. They are not thrilled with the price increases, but they have to have the material. I think OCC is going to be strong through the spring as collections are less, the price will go up.

News is a different story. News although it went up a little bit on The Yellow Sheet, there is not a lot of demand for news. The only thing that is keeping the price up is that there is very little supply. I think one of these days, we will see news go away and it will all go into mixed paper. Mixed paper is in good demand right now, especially in the Northeast. It didn’t go up a lot on The Yellow Sheet because there is a lot of it around. It all pretty much goes to export.

To summarize, for the three bulk grades, OCC is hot, news is not, mixed is pretty hot, but not as hot as OCC.
Pulp subs are very much just staying stable. I don’t think there will be anymore price decreases, but I don’t see a lot of price increases. I know hardwood pulp is a little bit stronger than it was. Softwood pulp is still very weak. Pulps subs are going to stay in the doldrums until pulp picks up.

Deink grades are fairly strong. They had some pretty hefty price increases—$15 per ton—but they had fallen very low. They are headed on their way back up but not anywhere near the prices they were last summer.

I think overall the market is pretty balanced. Domestic, export, everyone seems to be humming along.

The weather has not hampered collections this year, however, this is the time of year when people aren’t out consuming a lot other than groceries. There are no major holidays. Christmas is just over. People aren’t out shopping.

You will have your normal household collections, but no one is out buying in excess that would create excess waste. Collections always this time of year are historically light.

This year is very uneventful. It is an easy winter. Nothing major is going on. There are no new expansions that haven’t already been announced. It is a very balanced market right now.

I think the thing to watch right now [is] freight rates. I know the steam ship lines are pushing for increases. I don’t know if they will be pushed through or not. There is some announced for the next three months. If the steam ship line announces one price, they might settle with another.

Patty Norris can be contacted at PattyN@ifpcorp.com.