Marc Natan, president of BIR’s Non-Ferrous Metal Division, expresses an overall upbeat look at nonferrous markets.
In his opening to the Bureau of International Recycling’s monthly World Mirror, Marc Natan, president of the Non-Ferrous Division, expresses long-term optimism for many non-ferrous grades.
After acknowledging that many industry watchers are expecting some decline in many metals. He notes that the strengthening in nonferrous markets to China “heightened anticipation of a slowdown in China.” He adds that the scrap industry saw a similar pattern take place last year. “Remember the sudden drop in demand? The fear that consumers wouldn’t respect their commitments? The more fanciful claims we had to settle or to bear? Then suddenly, as if by magic, all the economic indicators gave us the green light again.”
While admitting he does not feel that scrap nonferrous metals will show quite the same bounce this year as it occurred last year, the demand remains strong. “You don’t need to be a clairvoyant to forecast a price decrease. It will probably be greater than hoped for, but less than predicted.
“This period of strength in the 21st century is not comparable to others that have gone before it. The robustness of Asian demand is such that it will take years to satisfy. Most metal prices should remain high, even though volatility may increase in the short term. To the list of positive points, I would add the weakness of officvial stocks and favorable funds that keep on buying even when stock exchange quotations fall.”
There are clearly some negative pointers, too: the world economic slowdown, the possibility that the French will vote against the EU constitution, which would weaken Europe’s position in the world; U.S. deficits; and so on. . .
Let’s not be too eager to be pessimistic since reasons to worry will surely emerge soon enough.”
The World Mirror is available to members of BIR. It includes a monthly outlook of nonferrous markets throughout the world, and contains observations from scrap metal companies in many key geographic regions.
For more information on the BIR go to their web site at www.bir.org.