Goldman Sachs Research: Copper prices to decline in 2026

Copper prices will decline somewhat in 2026 from their recent highs, according to Goldman Sachs Research, despite demand from the grid and power infrastructure, combined with limited growth in mine supply, gradually driving prices up over the longer term.

The report notes that the London Metals Exchange (LME) copper price reached a record high of $11,771 per metric ton Dec. 8, propelled by fears of a looming supply shortage outside the U.S. However, the team is forecasting the LME copper price to average $10,710 in the first half of 2026, with pricing ranging from $10,000-$11,000 for the year in light of a global supply surplus. 

One factor that could increase copper demand next year is the potential for the U.S. to introduce tariffs on refined copper imports. The U.S. Commerce Secretary is expected to make a recommendation on such tariffs to the White House by June 2026. Goldman Sachs Research’s base case is that a refined copper tariff of at least 25 percent will be implemented shortly thereafter.

Flows of copper cathode into the U.S. could accelerate in this scenario as they did this year before the administration opted to place a 50 percent tariff only on imports of copper products and not cathode beginning Aug. 1 of this year.  

Goldman Sachs Research expects copper prices to decline slightly following the implementation of tariffs on cathode imports, then resume their upward trajectory.

Limited growth in mine supply and rising structural demand from power infrastructure should help to balance supply and demand next year, Goldman Sachs Research says, with prices rising in subsequent years.

The company predicts the global copper market will end 2025 in a 500,000-metric-ton surplus (revised up from 215,000 metric tons previously).

Goldman Sachs Research expects copper demand to outpace supply beginning in 2029, pushing prices higher and incentivizing the development of new copper supply, which the company says will mainly be realized by extending the life of mines but also through more scrap use.

The LME copper price in 2035 is forecast at $15,000 per metric ton, per Goldman Sachs Research, which is above the consensus of industry analysts.