FTR forecasts toughening conditions for shippers

FTR forecast that its Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) would fall to its lowest level in four years, but surging fuel costs on top of the tightening freight environment could set the stage for the most unfavorable market conditions ever for shippers, according to the firm. Reaching that milestone is contingent on sharply higher fuel costs reducing capacity and raising freight rates in the near term and not just spiking fuel surcharges.

FTR is a Bloomington, Indiana-based forecasting firm focused on commercial freight and equipment demand. Its SCI tracks the changes representing four major conditions in the U.S. full-load freight market: freight demand, freight rates, fleet capacity and fuel price. The individual metrics are combined into a single index that tracks the market conditions that influence the shippers’ freight transport environment. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. A negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. The index summarizes the industry’s health at a glance.
 
FTR’s current forecast, which the company says was established before military strikes on Iran began at the end of February, anticipated that the SCI for February would be weaker than January’s -5.0 reading, which indicated the toughest overall conditions for shippers since May 2022.
 
The SCI reading of -23.1 in March 2022 is the lowest ever, driven by a still-tough truck freight market and, especially, what was – at least at the time – an unprecedented surge in diesel prices of $1.15 a gallon over two weeks. The surge of more than 96 cents during the first week of March 2026 far surpasses the first week of the March 2022 surge, but how prices will perform in the coming weeks is unknown.
 
“We wanted to highlight the possibility that the SCI soon could indicate the toughest overall conditions ever for shippers, though the freight components of the index are not yet as tough as they were in early 2022,” says Avery Vise, FTR vice president of trucking. “However, the freight market then had started to cool from 2021’s extreme situation, while today’s freight market—especially in trucking—is tightening. If the dramatic rise in diesel prices were to sideline even more capacity, the SCI quite plausibly could become even more unfavorable than it was in early 2022.”