The existence of a European Union market rather than 27 separate national markets is beginning to make its impact on the paper and recovered paper industries on that continent.
According to presenters at a session at the 2009 European Paper Recycling Conference, paper production is likely to decline in nations with older mills with less efficient technology while a series of newer, high-capacity mills in Central and Eastern Europe may be in a better position to survive in the long run.
Presenter Marek Skorwider of papermaker Mondi Swiecie SA, Poland, used a series of maps to demonstrate potential scenarios for European nations that already have or may soon move from being net exporters or importers of recovered fibre to the other way around.
Skorwider noted that in 2008, Germany and Poland in Central Europe were by far the largest exporters of recovered paper while Austria was the largest importer. Most of the surrounding nations were modest net exporters of material.
After several new mills ramp up this year and next, by 2010 Poland could become a net importer while Hungary will also need to import tonnage.
While improved collection in these nations could help close their gaps, Skorwider is unconvinced that is what will happen. “Even the effect of increased recycling rates is less than the capacity of the three new mills [in this region],” he remarked. He added that inexpensive landfill options and a lack of government initiatives to boost recycling will continue to plague collection efforts in the region.
Panelist John van den Heuvel of Peute Paperrecycling BV, the Netherlands, foresees overcapacity on the mill side in Europe to the tune of some 4 million metric tons of production and asked aloud what would come next, “acquisitions, liquidations or reorganizations?”
Even so, worries on the collection side remain, including what van den Heuvel called lower quality commingled collection as well as the ongoing decline of generated materials such as printers’ grades of scrap.
In the future, recyclers will need to use creativity, dedication and investing (even through downturns) to compete, said van den Heuvel.
Presenter Brian Taylor of the Recycling Today Media Group remarked that North American mills have been consuming recovered fibre at a rate that is 15 percent lower in 2009 compared to 2008, but generation of fibre is also down in most categories.
Moderator Neils van Binsbergen of ACN Europe, Rotterdam, remarked that recyclers should be wary of taking a bull market for granted, as papermakers throughout the world are shutting down mills and paper machines.
Even in China, with its fast-growing economy, only seven new paper machines are expected to come online in 2010, said van Binsbergen, compared to the double-digit numbers scrap paper exporters have been used to throughout this decade.
The 2009 European Paper Recycling Conference was held Nov. 16-17 at the Hotel Bloom in Brussels.