US EAF mills are running strong: Navigate Commodities

Atilla Widnell, managing director of Singapore-based Navigate Commodities, says his company’s furnace heat mapping shows the recycled-content electric arc furnace (EAF) sector in the United States is exhibiting strong levels of activity this December.

Calling it an early Christmas present for U.S. recyclers, the founder of the company, which uses satellite imaging and shipping activity to track the iron ore, steel, metals recycling and other markets, characterizes the EAF sector’s strength in a Dec. 23 LinkedIn post.

Widnell says the firm's Navigate Earth service watches 84 U.S. EAFs daily and that the tracking has determined November rebounded from October’s trough and December, starting from a higher base, is looking even firmer.

At times in late December, the U.S. EAF sector was reaching capacity utilization (capacity) rates of higher than 82.5 percent, according to Widnell.

“The holiday slowdowns are coming, but the setup into January 2026 looks strong,” he adds, noting that Navigate’s eight-year daily archive of furnace tracking shows historically that January into February is almost always an up month for U.S. EAF production rates.

”The mills are “hot [and] running high,” Widnell says to pursue what he calls elevated hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices.

The higher HRC prices may soon be joined by another factor that could cause recycled steel prices to rise. Supplies are tight, according to Widnell, who cites Christmas downtime at factories and winter weather, including Philadelphia to Minnesota snows that are slowing collection and trucking service.

Widnell says his own conversations with metals recycling contacts in the U.S. are pointing to January 2026 per-ton purchase settlements rising by $20-40 per ton from December prices.

“Hold your line on shred and plate and structural (P&S) prices [and] lock logistics early: weather buffers and weekend slots win margin," Widnell advises U.S. metal recyclers. “Use mill capacity utilization heat to time offers: sell into melt, not headlines.”

On the other side of the table, Widnell advises mills to presecure prompt scrap before storms and stagger deliveries across the holiday trough as well as to align maintenance with the quiet window to keep January heats protected.

Widnell says Navigate Commodities customers, recyclers and mill buyers alike can watch its regional U.S. capacity utilization prints to time spread margins and roll hedges into the arrivals window.