US EAF mills are running strong: Navigate Commodities

Atilla Widnell, managing director of Singapore-based Navigate Commodities, says his company’s furnace heat mapping shows the recycled-content electric arc furnace (EAF) sector in the United States is exhibiting strong levels of activity this December.

Calling it an “early Christmas present for U.S. recyclers,” the founder of the company, which uses satellite imaging and shipping activity to track the iron ore, steel, metals recycling and other markets, characterizes the EAF sector’s strength in a Dec. 23, 2025, LinkedIn.

Saying the firm’s Navigate Earth service “is watching 84 U.S. EAFs daily,” Widnell indicates the tracking has determined, “November rebounded from October’s trough [and] December, starting from a higher base, [is] looking even firmer.”

At times in late December, says Widnell, the U.S. EAF sector was reaching capacity utilization (capacity) rates of higher than 82.5 percent.

“The holiday slowdowns are coming, but the setup into January 2026 looks strong,” adds Widnell, adding that Navigate’s eight-year daily archive of furnace tracking shows historically that “January into February is almost always an up month for U.S. EAF production rates.

”The mills are “hot [and] running high,” he says to pursue what Widnell calls elevated hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices.

The higher HRC prices may soon be joined by another factor that could cause recycled steel prices to rise. Supplies of the secondary commodity are tight, according to Widnell, who cites Christmas downtime at factories and winter weather, including “Philadelphia to Minnesota snows,” he says are slowing collection and trucking service.

Widnell says his own conversations with metals recycling contacts in the U.S. are pointing to January 2026 per ton purchase settlements rising by from $20 to $40 per ton from December prices.

Advises Widnell to metal recyclers in the U.S., “Hold your line on shred and plate and structural (P&S)” prices” and “lock logistics early: weather buffers and weekend slots win margin.”

Regarding the value of Navigate’s services to recyclers, Widnell adds, “Use mill capacity utilization heat to time offers: sell into melt, not headlines.”

On the other side of the table, Widnell advises mills to “pre-secure prompt [scrap] before storms [and] stagger deliveries across the holiday trough” as well as to “align maintenance with the quiet window [to] keep January heats protected.”

Widnell says as Navigate Commodities customers, recyclers and mill buyers alike can “watch our regional U.S. capacity utilization prints to time spread [margins] and roll hedges into the arrivals window.”