Tariff on copper could be looming

President Donald J. Trump and United States Department of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick have indicated a 50 percent tariff on imported copper could be arriving later this month.

In the televised portion of an early July cabinet meeting, Trump remarked, “Today we're doing copper,” turning to Lutnick for confirmation that the tariff rate will be 50 percent, according to an online report from Yahoo! Finance.

That same media outlet says Lutnick later Tuesday told a TV news network that he expected the copper-related tariffs to be in place by the end of this month.

The notion of a tariff on inbound copper was first mentioned by the administration this February, when the White House released a “fact sheet” tied to its order for the Commerce Department to investigate how copper imports threaten U.S. national security and economic stability, and to propose potential trade remedies.

A 50 percent tariff rate is in place for inbound steel and aluminum. While steel industry trade groups have reacted positively to the policy, the copper sector might align with aluminum producers, which have indicated imported supply (especially from neighboring Canada and Mexico) is important to the overall industry.

The televised cabinet meeting took place while the COMEX commodity market was in the midst of its trading day. Subsequently, the spot price of COMEX copper rose by 66 cents, or 13 percent, to end the day at what copper industry analyst John E. Gross calls “a record high close of $5.65” per pound.

A similar (but smaller) price spike occurred this February, when the investigation was announced, with copper experiencing a 20-cent-per-pound price rise when the COMEX market opened the day following the announcement.

In a brief note sent to his subscribers at the close of the Comex market on Tuesday, July 8, Gross writes, “The global copper market has been in disarray for several months due to the threat of a 25 percent tariff on copper imports that was made in February.”

Noting the raised 50 percent rate and the immediate spike in the COMEX, or CME, spot price, Gross then adds, “It is imperative that the administration lay out the details of how tariffs will be imposed and also announce the results of their investigation into imports of copper as they relate to national security. Until this is done, the global copper market will remain dangerously volatile.”

Ed Meir of Marex, which is headquartered in London, tells Recycling Today that the tariff on copper imports is puzzling given the U.S.' dependence on imported copper. "

Last year, America imported roughly 810,000 tons of cathode, roughly half of what it consumes. A third of these imports came from Chile, a quarter from Canada and the balance mostly from Mexico and Peru.

"Meanwhile, CME/LME [London Metal Exchange] copper arbitrage has skyrocketed to almost $3,000 per ton (from $100 at the start of the year), while CME copper prices have soared by roughly $1,100 per ton, setting fresh record highs," Meir adds. 

He continues, "It remains to be seen if the 50 percent tariff will be negotiated lower. If not, it will be quite a massive hit for the average U.S. consumer. Chile will certainly make its case to lower it, arguing that it is one of the few countries that actually runs a trade deficit with the US and so should therefore deserve a break."

Given that markets outside of copper, such as treasuries, the dollar, U.S. equities and gold,  are relatively calm, Meir says that suggests that investors are expecting deals to be made down the road with lower tariffs. 

In 2024, mining activities within the United States produced about 1.15 million tons of the red metal, according to government statistics aggregated by the United States Geological Survey (USGS).

Scrap-fed secondary producers in the U.S., with brass mills and wire rod mills being the largest category, provided an additional 809,000 tons of American-made copper and copper alloys in 2024.

However, another 908,000 tons of refined copper were imported, representing more than 28 percent of those three figures added together.

*This item was updated to include comments from Ed Meir.