Copper smelting activity slows in China

While data collected throughout 2025 points to a ramp up in copper production this year, led by output in the People’s Republic of China, London-based Earth-i has reported a potential reversal in that trend in October.

Earth-i, which collects and analyzes information gathered from satellites, drones and aerial and ground-based sensors, says global copper smelting activity fell in October, with the percentage of world capacity registered as inactive now estimated at 15.1 percent. That percentage rose following a month-on-month increase of 1.7 percent, says Earth-i.

Regarding the October slowdown, the tracking service comments, “This was in large part due to a sharp decline in smelting activity in China, where the inactivity series jumped by 6.9 percent to 13.8 percent, the largest single month increase since April 2024.”

Earth-i says its tracking indicates maintenance downtime was a factor at two smelters in China. Additionally, “The [inactive percentage] is being pulled higher by low levels of smelting activity in North China, Northeast China and Northwest China, where (capacity-weighted) inactivity averages 40 percent across the three regions.”

The tracking service singles out the Fuxin Bofa plant in Liaoning Province, China, which previously was known as Top Eastern before being sold in 2019, as having been offline since early September. “We believe that the smelter could have been permanently shuttered; as a privately owned, undersized facility it would be especially vulnerable both to prevailing market conditions [and] the central government’s anti-involution drive.”

Beyond China, smelting activity increased by 2.2 percent in the rest of the world in October compared with September, says the data analysis firm.

The Lisbon-based International Copper Study Group (ICSG) has released its summary of global copper production statistics through September of this year. Through the first nine months of the year, ICSG says world refined copper production grew by about 4.3 percent compared with the first nine months of 2024.

Global secondary refined recycled-content production grew at an even faster rate in the first three quarters of the year, rising by 5.5 percent, “mainly due to growth in China,” according to the trade group.

ICSG’s summary includes copper inventory figures calculated through October of this year for metal held in warehouses affiliated with the London Metal Exchange (LME), United States-based Comex and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE).

The association says in the first 10 months of this year, copper inventory warehoused by the major metal exchanges totaled nearly 575,000 metric tons, representing an increase of nearly 145,000 metric tons, or about 33 percent, compared with inventory at the end of December 2024.

The effects of a copper pricing arbitrage situation earlier this year are evident, with inventory down at the LME by more than 135,000 metric tons compared with 10 months earlier. Meanwhile, Comex warehouses have added more than 240,000 metric tons of copper this year while SHFE facility inventory has grown by more than 40,000 metric tons, according to ICSG.