Newsprint demand to plummet in China

China’s newsprint demand is expected to decline by 7.6 percent per year from 2015 to 2024, according to the United States-based forest products research firm RISI.

According to RISI, China’s graphic paper markets have been experiencing a downward shift in demand growth since 2009, and recent changes could further hinder the graphic paper industry.

“China’s younger generations are expected to rely solely on digital media for news in the future as older generations transition gradually,” says Li Meng, an economist at RISI and the lead author of a new study by the firm. “This has already affected graphic paper grades. Newspaper advertising reportedly dropped by 30 percent in the first half of [2015]. Our forecasts show a dismal outlook for demand and growth in graphic paper markets overall, as smartphones and other technology become more prevalent.”

Li continues, “Printing and writing paper grades will see declining demand over the forecast period. This decline is due to rising electronic information exchange in the business sector, increased use of e-readers and tight competition for advertising dollars across media. The U.S. has already strongly felt the impacts of these changes and this will spread to China as technology is adopted globally.”

RISI analysts predict that during the next 10 years demand for newsprint in China will decline by 7.6 percent per year and printing and writing paper demand will decrease 0.7 percent per year, a total demand loss of 3.5 million metric tons. These and other findings have been published in “The Chinese Graphic Paper Market: Recent Trends and Future Prospects under Changing Circumstances,” a new study by RISI.

RISI says the study also includes:

• in-depth coverage of China’s graphic paper markets;
• analysis of recent developments in China’s graphic paper end-use markets;
•  10-year forecasts on demand, supply and pricing trends;
• current cost positions of China’s major graphic paper producers (including Asia Pulp and Paper, Shandong Huatai Group, Shandong Chenming Group, China Paper Corporation, Shandong Sun Paper and UPM); and
• research on recent government policy and its potential impacts on future policy.

More information on the study, including how to order it, can be found at www.risi.com/chinagraphic.