BIR World Recycling Convention 2025: Trade uncertainty creates turmoil

President Donald Trump’s on-again-off-again approach to tariffs has created global uncertainty, while the European Commission proposal limiting recycled metal exports is an additional source of concern for attendees of the Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) 2025 World Recycling Convention & Exhibition, May 26-28 in Valencia, Spain.  

During the International Trade Council (ITC) meeting May 26, tariffs were explored in detail in a keynote address by professor Philippe Chalmin of the CyclOpe consultancy in France.

“It is true, the world is in turmoil with what I call—in comparison with Roosevelt—Donald Trump’s new deal and its geopolitical consequences for world markets,” Chalmin told delegates.

“We are really in the roaring ‘20s of the twenty-first century … we will remember the '20s of this century to compare with the '30s and the '70s of the twentieth century,” he continued. “We had three sparkles, first Covid in '20, then the Ukraine invasion in '22 and now Donald Trump in '25. So, what to expect in the months to come?”

Chalmin predicted the situation would more or less stabilize.

“Next year, tariffs will be between 10-15 percent, which is huge by the way, and depends on the sector in which you are working," he said.

Emmanuel Katrakis, director of public and regulatory affairs at Galloo, with locations in France and Belgium, chaired the meeting, which included Robin Wiener, president of the Washington-based Recycled Materials Association, who provided a U.S. perspective. She said tariff-related uncertainty also is being felt in the U.S.

"Generally, manufacturing is not supportive of the tariffs," Wiener said, adding that while manufacturers want a strong basis in the U.S., they also want broader market access.

Wiener agreed that the global trading system has legitimate issues.

“To understand the rationales, there isn’t just one set of tariffs being proposed," she said. "There is concern over China. … There is the reshoring of jobs in the U.S. and how we would do that. So, there are a lot of rationales being put forward.”

The discussion then turned to Europe, the European Commission hosted a recent meeting on its Steel and Metals Action Plan, which was published in March.

Katrakis explained that the biggest issue in Europe was energy prices, not the availability of recycled metals. However, he said, “a few paragraphs” in the Steel and Metals Action Plan mentioned the need to keep "scrap" in Europe to ensure its availability. He stressed that many meetings were ongoing in Brussels and that he could not divulge what was being said.

“We are not scrap providers; we are putting recycled materials on the market, and based on objective figures, there was no problem of recycled metals availability that could justify export restrictions,” Katrakis added.

Murat Bayram, managing director of U.K.-based EMR, described the global trade situation as being “like a poison in the DNA of an economy.”

“Everyone was looking with a big question mark," he continued. "It starts with the people, ‘Will I still have my job or not?’ The automobile industry is looking for the people, but they are saying, ‘Will I buy a new car or not?'”

Referring to the situation in Europe, Bayram said, “The discussion we have had, I would say, is a wake-up call on the one side, and they are not stopping pushing for the regulation, but also an eye-opener that we are willing to fight.”

He also noted that “not every recycled steel or nonferrous material has buyers in Europe at the moment.”

Dhawal Shah of Metco Ventures, based in Mumbai, shared his view on the global changes and how India was developing in terms of recycled material imports.

“They say that change is nature and change is the only inevitable in life, and I think 2025 has strongly confirmed that theory," he said.

Shah said India’s gross domestic product had been growing consistently by 6.5-7.5 percent, with the country becoming the fourth-largest economy, surpassing Japan.

India has introduced two big programs designed to make it more self-sufficient.

“Over the last five to seven years, we have come a long way," Shah said. "At the moment, we have a deficit of about 80 billion dollars, it used to hover at around 120-130 billion dollars.”

In terms of materials, he said infeed from imports is important to the metals sector in India, with import duties having been removed, except for aluminum, which was at 2.5 percent.

Shah added that it likely will be 10-15 years before India is self-sufficient in recycled materials.