BIR Paper Division Sees Huge Potential in China

The BIR Paper Division meeting in Monte-Carlo during its annual spring meeting, highlighted the massive potential of an already fast-growing Chinese market for recovered paper and board.

Dominique Maguin, BIR’s division president, explained that China is now the world’s third largest consumer of paper and board. However, the average amount of paper consumed per capita was still well below the world average, leaving a significant amount of room for this figure to grow. During the meeting, several speakers expressed the opinion that China could be looking for 20-25 million metric tons of recovered fiber imports over the next five years.

Maguin pointed out that the 33 percent consumption growth ‘explosion’ in Asia between 1996 and 2000 easily outstripped paper and board consumption increases of 28.58 percent and 14.23 percent in Europe and North America respectively over the same period.

In his report on the European market, Maarten Kleiweg de Zwaan of BPB Recycling in The Netherlands confirmed exports to the Far East totaling 3.5 million metric tons last year. Meanwhile, in his summary of the recent activities of ERPA, de Zwaan noted that the organization’s involvement in the CEPI initiative on the European Declaration on paper recovery combined with the constitution of the ERPC had resulted in a substantial increase in its workload. A new grid of dues had been suggested to increase the ERPA budget, he confirmed.

The first of two guest speakers at the Paper Division meeting, Edward Walker of Edward Walker Consulting, UK, predicted that consumption of recovered fiber by the world’s paper and board industry would increase by an average of 4.1 percent per year through 2005, compared to 5.8 percent a year during the 1990s. ‘Thereafter, it is likely that the annual percentage growth rate will continue to fall, even if annual tonnage increases are sustained at about the same level,’ he added.

This slowing in the growth rate would be attributable in part to reduced paper and board production growth - particularly in North America - and also to “a slowing of the incremental rate of use of recovered fiber in the main paper and board grades,” Walker explained. “Certain limits are fast approaching to the amount of recovered fiber that can be incorporated in paper and board furnishes in some grades and regions.”

According to Walker, China has announced new projects that will add 6.7 million tons of recycling capacity between 2000-2005, compared to the 2.1 million tons planned in the United States. “The baton of growth is well and truly being passed to Asia,” he observed.

The Division’s other guest speaker predicted huge growth in per capita paper consumption and therefore recovered paper requirements in India. Jogarao of BVS Jogarao ITC Ltd noted that paper consumption in India was currently around 5kg per inhabitant but that the rate could be expected to rise to 20-25kg in the next five years. Liberalization of India’s recovered paper import system would help prompt substantial growth in the country’s overseas purchases of recovered paper and board over the coming decade, he added.