The global copper supply chain has been facing a difficult period given tight availability of primary and secondary raw materials. Ore supply remains limited because of operational challenges, despite the new refining capacities coming online.
Copper producers have moved to recycled metal to compensate for inadequate copper concentrate supply. Meanwhile, the global recycled copper supply chain is expected to face disruptions, with growing focus on domestic recycling by major scrap-exporting nations.
On the contrary, demand remains bullish for the red metal given rising applications in electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy, grid modernization, urbanization, infrastructure development and the electronics sector. The growth in the coming years will be driven mainly by greater EV growth, renewable energy infrastructure, data centers and artificial intelligence infrastructure with more focus on recycled copper use arising from circularity benchmarks.
Global apparent refined copper use grew by 3.2 percent in the first five months of this year to 11.5 million metric tons, as indicated by data from the Lisbon-based International Copper Study Group (ICSG). The growth was driven primarily by China’s 5.5 percent demand uptick, which contributes a 58 percent share in the total consumption.
Preliminary data indicate world ex-China use remained essentially unchanged as weak demand in the European Union, Japan and the United States offset demand growth in China and the Middle East and North Africa, or MENA, region. Refined copper production during the first five months of this year stood at 11.8 million metric tons (mt), increasing by 3.1 percent and leading to a market surplus of about 272,000 metric tons.
By 2050, global refined copper demand is expected to reach 53 million mt from 27 million mt in 2024, driven by the factors discussed above, an increase of more than 6 percent from present levels, as indicated by the McClean Virginia-based International Copper Association.
Meanwhile, global mine production rose by 2.7 percent during the same period to 9.5 million mt, much less than refined copper output. The largest growth came from Mongolia with the Oyu Tolgoi ramp up, followed by the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chile and Peru. Indonesian output declined owing to a maintenance shutdown.
A recent collapse at Codelco’s largest mine, El Teniente in Chile, is set to shrink the availability of copper output. Authorities are undergoing an investigation, and contacts in the copper sector believe the mine will not be operational until the investigation concludes. The mine produces approximately 30,000 mt of copper monthly, nearly a quarter of Codelco’s total output. As of Aug. 6, the site had run out of ore to process.
Primary refined copper output grew 3.2 percent to about 9.5 million mt, and secondary output from recycled metal grew 2.8 percent to 1.9 million mt during the same time frame. Secondary copper growth mainly was attributed to a growing focus on recycling in China.
China: Global copper demand driver
China’s consumption remains resilient, supported by its massive EV adoption, renewable energy targets, urban infrastructure upgrades and manufacturing scale.
While consumption grew 5.5 percent from January to May, imports trended downward as a result of growing domestic production capacity, especially in refined and secondary production, and trade conflicts with the U.S., a major exporter.
China imported 2.63 million mt of copper and copper products from January to June, marking a 5 percent decrease from 2.76 million mt in the same period of 2024, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. June imports rebounded, rising 8.7 percent from the previous year to 464,000 mt and 8.6 percent from 427,000 mt in May.
China also is investing heavily in secondary recycling, with more than 116 million mt of copper in use domestically.
Japan: shifting focus to recycled copper
Japan, which makes up 5.5 percent of global refined copper production, lacks sufficient reserves and relies heavily on raw material imports, maintaining no import duty on copper ore and concentrates.
Japan’s recycled copper imports in the first half of this year increased by 39 percent to reach 150,464 mt compared with the 108,483 mt a year ago as the focus shifted to recycled copper. Exports fell by 7 percent to 171,083 mt compared with 184,535 mt in the same time frame as domestic consumption picked up.
India: Rising demand hub
Driven by ambitious infrastructure and industrial policies, India’s copper demand rose by 13 percent annually to 1.7 million mt in its 2024 fiscal year, according to the International Copper Association India.
Initiatives such as Make in India, the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles policy and the Smart Cities Mission all have played key roles in accelerating copper consumption.
India currently has per-capita copper consumption of just 0.5-0.6 kilograms, with potential for copper demand growth, driven by infrastructure expansion, clean energy and industrialization.
The country’s refined copper demand is projected to reach 3-3.3 million mt by 2030 and 8.9-9.8 million mt by 2047, reflecting a 2-2.2 times and 5.9-6.5 times increase, respectively.
In its 2024 fiscal year, India’s total copper consumption stood at 1.7 million mt, and refined copper use was at 844,000 mt. The gap of about 856,000 mt was met using direct scrap melting and net imports of semifinished products.
India’s refined copper supply growth increasingly is falling short of demand, weighed down by slow mine expansions, stricter regulations and rising production costs. As a result, greater reliance is being placed on secondary sources like recycled copper to bridge the gap.
India’s copper imports
Despite an estimated 1.66 billion mt of copper ore resources, India remains heavily reliant on imports. Only about 9.87 percent (163.89 million mt) of its total copper resources are classified as reserves that are economically viable for extraction.
India imported 335,000 mt of copper cathodes in its 2024 fiscal year. In 2025, India’s recycled copper imports rose by 42 percent from January to May, reaching 144,426 mt from 101,577 mt last year, according to customs data.
The shutdown of Vedanta’s Sterlite Copper plant in 2018 has played a role in turning India into a net copper importer. In response, Vedanta is working to expand its copper substrate production capacity through its Silvassa operations and a planned $2 billion facility in Saudi Arabia.
The launch of Adani’s Kutch Copper site, with expected output of 500,000 mt annually in its initial phase, is likely to ease import volume in the future. The second phase of the project plans to double capacity to 1 million mt annually.
Production is increasing in Indonesia and India given boosted demand driven by the evolving green energy and EV sectors. However, recent stockpiling of recycled and refined copper in the U.S. ahead of the 50 percent Section 232 tariff could disrupt the material flow in the medium term.
Indonesia: From miner to processor
Indonesia, traditionally a major copper concentrate exporter, is transitioning rapidly into a refined copper producer, aiming to capture more value domestically.
The country levied a ban on copper concentrate exports to push downstream investment. The Amman copper refinery began producing cathodes in March, and the Manyar refinery is expected to start in the second half of this year.
Once those sites come online, the shift is likely to alter Asia’s copper trade flows.
The US: New growth avenues
While demand in the U.S. remains relatively flat in the short term given an economic slowdown and cautious industrial spending, medium- and long-term demand remain strong, driven by power grid modernization, energy storage systems and AI data centers.
The U.S. is a net importer of refined copper and semifinished products. Recycled copper plays a large role in the domestic supply chain, but tight global scrap availability is creating cost pressures.
U.S. primary copper imports rose by 127 percent between January and May to reach 682,636 mt from 300,297 mt in the same period of 2024, according the U.S. Census Bureau, indicating panic buying before the import tariffs set in.
Recycled copper exports during the same period declined 3 percent to 3.9 million mt as the country focused on domestic consumption of recycled materials.
Across all regions, recycled copper is essential to meet growing demand sustainably as copper ore supply is tight and climate goals remain a priority. As major scrap-exporting nations restrict exports, domestic recycling infrastructure is vital.
While the copper demand story is global, its intensity and trajectory differ by region, with more aggressive growth likely to come from Asia. As the world transitions to a low-carbon economy, low-carbon and recycled copper remains at the heart of this transformation.
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