Overseas issue puts lid on prices

However, steelmaking statistics from the first four months of this year point to a largely stable melt shop situation in the U.S.

A back-and-forth tariff regimen emanating from the Trump administration has metal recyclers and other business owners worried about the near-term future of the United States economy and its supply chains.

Steelmaking statistics from the first four months of this year, however, point to a largely stable melt shop situation in the U.S. A source of concern for steel recyclers in the U.S. East can be found further afield, in the first-quarter import statistics of the U.S.’ largest recycled steel export destination—Turkey.

Import figures gathered by SteelData and reported on in early May by Davis Index show a 23 percent drop in ferrous scrap shipments from the U.S. to Turkey in this year’s first quarter compared with early 2024.

“Our flows have been close to normal with a small decrease so far, [but] manufacturing has definitely slowed, and scrap outputs are reflecting that.” – Midwestern scrap processor

Early this year, Turkish buyers brought in less scrap from most of the country’s largest trading partners, leading to a 12 percent decline in recycled steel imports year on year in the first quarter.

The business information services cite several reasons for the decline, including a 20 percent increase in domestic recycled steel generation within Turkey (owing in part to lingering 2023 earthquake cleanup activity) and a 3 percent drop in Turkish steel output in this year’s first quarter compared with last year.

However, at the same time U.S. steel imports decreased, Turkish mill imports of Russian scrap increased by a sizable 115 percent year on year in the first quarter of this year, according to SteelData.

Measured by volume, inbound shipments of U.S. recycled steel into Turkey fell by 225,000 metric tons year on year in the first quarter, while Russian shipments increased by 97,000 metric tons, SteelData reports.

The pivot to Russia seemed to hit U.S. exporters the hardest, along with those in the United Kingdom, where recycled steel shipments fell by 21 percent in this year’s first quarter compared with early 2024.

Of Turkey’s 10 largest ferrous scrap suppliers this year, Belgium, Denmark, France, Lithuania and Romania joined the U.S. and the U.K. in seeing a decline in shipment volumes, while only the Netherlands and Poland joined Russia in experiencing modest volume increases.

A variety of other factors, such as severe weather in much of the U.S., helped recycled steel prices rise on the East Coast this winter despite the Turkish buying slowdown. The shrinking of the Turkish market, however, seems to be apparent in spring pricing trends.

Prices for bulk shipments of mixed Nos. 1 and 2 heavy melting steel (HMS) from the port of New York peaked at around $356 per metric ton in late March, according to Davis Index.

Subsequently, East Coast HMS bulk shipment prices dropped $28 per metric ton on average throughout March and then lost another $23 per metric ton in value during April. By early May, Davis Index had HMS bulk cargoes being purchased from $295-$299 per metric ton freight on board (fob) from the port of New York.

Further inland in the U.S. Midwest, a scrap processor and trader Recycling Today contacted expresses concern about how in-place and looming tariffs will affect both scrap supplies and demand in late spring and into the summer.

“Our flows have been close to normal with a small decrease so far,” the processor says. “Manufacturing has definitely slowed, and scrap outputs are reflecting that. The tariffs were rolled out haphazardly, creating uncertainty and confusion. I am concerned that as long as there is lower demand for finished steel, the generation of scrap will follow and decrease as well.”

As of early May, steel production figures gathered by the Washington-based American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) do not show alarming conditions within the domestic steel industry.

Year to date through May 3, however, AISI puts total U.S. steel output at about 29.3 million tons, a 1 percent drop from the more than 29.6 million tons produced in the same time frame in 2024.

On average this year, mills have been operating at a capability utilization (capacity) rate of 74.8 percent, down from 75.9 percent in the same period last year.

AISI reports that in the week ending May 3, U.S. steel output of 1.73 million tons was 1.4 percent higher compared with 1.7 million tons made during the same week in 2024.

Another potentially encouraging sign is that the late April and early May weekly figure showed a 1.1 percent increase compared with the previous week, when output measured 1.71 million tons.

AISI geographical figures for the week ending May 3 show the South leading the way, producing 737,000 tons that week, followed by the AISI Great Lakes region at 548,000 tons, the Midwest at 237,000 tons and the West at 71,000 tons.

June 2025
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