Editor's Note: This article originally appeared in the September 2025 print edition of Recycling Today under the headline “Copper’s tumultuous market.”
The global copper market has been volatile for most of the year, especially on the supply side, amid issues related to primary and secondary raw material availability.
Tariff threats and trade conflicts, geopolitical tensions, operational disruptions in mines and the gap between refined copper capacity and raw material availability contributed to the volatility.
Copper producers shifted to recycled material to compensate for inadequate copper concentrate supply. Meanwhile, amid the growing focus on domestic recycling by major scrap-exporting nations, the copper scrap market remains tight. Additionally, import tariffs and carbon rules have paved the way for more domestic recycling.
Prices in the major metal exchanges were high for most of the first half of the year because of supply concerns.
By the end of June, copper stocks held at the London Metal Exchange (LME), COMEX and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) warehouses combined were 365,249 tons, a 15 percent decrease from December 2024. Stocks were down at the LME by 180,100 tons, though they were up at COMEX and SHFE by 107,743 tons and 7,378 tons, respectively.
The average LME cash price for July was $9,778.22 per metric ton. This year’s high and low copper prices were $10,120 per metric ton in July and $8,539 per metric ton in April. The average in the first half of this year was $9,482 per metric ton, an increase of about 4 percent from the 2024 annual average for the same period.
The US market
Tariff uncertainties, which have defined the U.S. copper market since February, came to an unexpected end in August as the U.S. excluded refined copper from import tariffs and levied duties on semifinished product imports.
The U.S. is abundant with copper waiting to be processed. These volumes were shipped by traders before the tariffs were levied. More than 500,000 tons of copper reportedly have been shipped into the U.S. so far this year. The CME warehouse now has 232,195 tons of copper, the highest inventory since 2004, and metal still was arriving in huge quantities as consignments were sent before the Aug. 1 deadline.
Meanwhile, a notice from the White House said 25 percent of copper input materials (such as copper ores, concentrates, mattes, cathodes and anodes) made in the U.S. will be sold in the U.S., starting at 25 percent in 2027 and increasing to 30 percent in 2028 and finally to 40 percent in 2029.
“This will boost U.S. refining capacity by ensuring low-cost inputs while domestic refiners grow their operations,” the notice says.
The move signals a possible drop in recycled copper exports.
“Export restrictions can go by many names, but at the end of the day, it is simply a market restriction,” Aldo Jordan, president of San Francisco-based The Metals Agency, says. “Although not outright required [but] written as a ‘recommendation,’ the implication of a government possibly restricting the free trade of a metal commodity is enough to be of great concern.
“From a pricing perspective, this has the potential to create an artificially incorrect price as a trade restriction will essentially serve as a subsidy to the domestic industry. From a trading standpoint, imagine having the government trying to keep track of export quotas and their realistic accuracy and application.”
The U.S. copper market has been unstable since February, when President Donald Trump said his administration would consider imposing import tariffs on primary copper entering the country. Trump promoted the use of tariffs during his presidential campaign as a way to protect domestic industries.
On July 8, Trump provided more specifics on the measure and announced that a 50 percent import duty on copper would be implemented starting Aug 1.
COMEX prices surged. The next active COMEX copper contract appreciated by 37 percent to $5.835 per pound at the end of July from $4.259 per pound in December 2024. The disparity between COMEX and LME prices grew to unprecedented levels. The arbitrage at the end of July was $1.32 as the LME copper three-month settlement was $4.462 per pound, causing recycled copper spreads in the U.S. to widen considerably this year for domestic and exported material.
The domestic spread for No. 2 copper (dream), which had remained in the 40-47-cents-per-pound range delivered to the consumer under the COMEX cash spot price from June 2024 to the start of February 2025, widened to as much as $1.55 per pound delivered to a consumer under the COMEX cash spot contract by the end of July.
A return to normalcy
Months of uncertainty evaporated in a matter of hours July 30 as Trump announced that refined copper, including ores, concentrates and cathodes, would be spared from import tariffs.
The administration said that mainly semifinished copper products, such as pipes, rods and tubes, as well as copper derivatives, including cables, components and fittings, would be the targets of the protective measures.
With the exclusion of refined copper and scrap from the 50 percent duties, prices trended downward in August. The average LME cash price stood at around $9,575 per metric ton.
The announcement came the same day the U.S. declared some raw materials, like pig iron, from Brazil would not be subject to additional 40 percent import tariffs that were set to be imposed.
COMEX’s future contracts fell almost immediately, with the next-active contract falling under the spot cash contract for the first time in a long time.
On Aug. 1, the spot cash contract was at $4.4125 per pound, the next-active stood at $4.4355 per pound and the arbitrage narrowed dramatically to approximately 8 cents. This caused recycled copper spreads to tighten significantly by more than a dollar before the week was over. The spread for No. 2, mentioned previously, was back in the 40-50-cents-per-pound range Aug. 6.
The potential switch
Several traders say they “had never seen levels like this.”
With the volatility in COMEX prices, traders say that the U.S. recycled copper market could transition to spreads based on LME prices until it found stability. Some traders welcome this change, while others deem it impractical, claiming a mathematical reason for the arbitrage, or the difference between the COMEX and LME values.
The COMEX surge reflected the expected price of copper after the tariffs came into effect, since the price index is forward-looking. Conversely, the lower LME prices and inventory levels reflected the migration of copper as the deadline for the tariffs neared.
For his part, Jordan says such a switch has its upsides.
“From a trading perspective, it seems LME has a closer reflection of copper’s physical markets compared to COMEX,” where banks, managed money and swap dealers, or nonphysical traders, are responsible for more than three-fourths of copper trading.
The Chinese factor
Jordan also says China could affect the copper market shortly as that country plays “one of the most important roles” in global copper scrap trading.
“As of Aug. 1, the [United States] and China have not agreed on a new trade agreement,” he says. “China plays one of the most important roles in global copper scrap trading for producers, consumers and manufacturers. The outcome of such an agreement plays an oversized role in the future of copper trading and its global dynamics. The largest part of the global copper trade is not yet found and has the potential to alter the global copper dynamics for all participants.”
The Indian market
Driven by ambitious infrastructure and industrial policies, India’s copper demand increased by 13 percent annually to 1.7 million metric tons in its 2024 fiscal year, according to the International Copper Association India.
Initiatives like Atmanirbhar Bharat, Make in India, the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles policy and the Smart Cities Mission all have played major roles in accelerating copper consumption.
The Asian market has been buzzing with healthy demand, mostly from the world’s largest producer, China. Refined copper production has picked up on an annual basis, increasing about 7 percent in China and globally by 3 percent. Asian copper prices remained highly volatile, with lows of $8,700 per metric ton and highs of $10,100 per metric ton. Primary and recycled copper prices were relatively high in the first half of the year.
Imported electric motor scrap prices have remained relatively stable in the first half of 2025 for medium and large-sized units sourced from Europe and the U.S., with offers around $1,160 per metric ton cost and freight (cfr) Mundra, India, and $1,180 per metric ton in Pakistan.
However, tensions in the Middle East have pushed freight rates higher, lifting prices to $1,220-$1,230 per metric ton cfr to the Qasim port in Pakistan.
Production is increasing in Indonesia and India because of boosted demand driven by the evolving green energy and electric vehicle sectors. However, recent stockpiling in the U.S. suggests potential challenges to refining capacity.
The copper market in 2025 is expected to be shaped by strong demand and tight supply influenced by policy changes. Punit Jain, partner at Arihant Metals in Delhi, India, says these factors, along with global economic conditions, ultimately will direct the future of copper and define the second half of 2025 with mixed sentiment and impact.
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