Copper takes twists and turns

The first year of President Donald Trump’s second term brought with it a flurry of executive orders and actions that moved stock and commodities markets alike in 2025, and copper was caught up in that market turbulence.

In the case of the red metal, a 2025 journey that would include a price spike on the United States-based Comex began in February. Later that month, the Trump administration issued an executive order to initiate a trade investigation because, according to the president, the U.S. faces significant vulnerabilities in the copper supply chain, with increasing reliance on foreign sources for mined, smelted and refined copper.

That executive order indicated tariffs on inbound copper and restrictions on outbound red metal scrap were potential outcomes of that investigation, therefore kicking off a multimonth roller coaster ride for copper prices, as well as numerous challenges for traders and recyclers.

An arbitrage enters

In a five-month period that started even before the official release of the February executive order, many were left waiting to see what types of tariffs or restrictions would soon be introduced to the red metals market.

The most prominent reaction during that time was copper’s escalating value on Comex compared with its relatively lower value on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE).

The run-up in the Comex copper price began earlier in February after the Trump administration said it intended to issue tariffs on inbound aluminum and steel, with speculators assuming a copper tariff was probable.

Subsequent spreads between the price of copper on Comex and the other exchanges reached as high as $1 per pound, causing stress for risk-averse physical traders but representing an opportunity for arbitrage—the rapid or simultaneous buying and selling of assets—for the more risk-tolerant.

By mid-August, New York-based red metals industry analyst John Gross, author of “The Copper Journal,” said the global copper market was “dazed and confused” but also as had come full circle, with the Comex-LME price differential down to 6 cents per pound.

The price spread balloon deflated after the late July release of the findings and recommendations tied to the White House investigation announced in February. That proclamation placed Section 232 tariffs on imported semifinished copper products, such as copper pipes, wires, rods, sheets and tubes, and copper-intensive derivative products, such as pipe fittings, cables, connectors and electrical components, as of Aug. 1, 2025.

However, the list did not include copper cathode or anode, and while the fact sheet referred to potential actions in the scrap market, they were suggestions rather than mandates.

But for physical buyers of copper-bearing scrap and finished and semifinished copper, the spring and summer speculation surrounding possible tariffs already had made an impact not only on price lists but also in some shipping patterns.

Finding a suitable home

In his February executive order, Trump noted increasing dependence on foreign sources of copper, particularly from a concentrated number of nations, along with the risk of foreign market manipulation.

According to Trump, the situation could lead to recommendations on actions to mitigate such threats, including potential tariffs, export controls or incentives to increase domestic production and policy recommendations for strengthening the U.S. copper supply chain through strategic investments, permitting reforms and enhanced recycling initiatives.

That announcement perhaps understandably led to a fear that flows of copper into the U.S. could soon change dramatically, leading to a long-distance journey of tons of copper from LME to Comex warehouses.

In a year-to-date summary of global copper statistics released in November 2025 by the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), Lisbon, the association says at the end of October, copper inventory warehoused by the major metal exchanges totaled nearly 575,000 metric tons, an increase of nearly 145,000 metric tons, or about 33 percent, compared with inventory at the end of December 2024.

Inventory was down at the LME by more than 135,000 metric tons compared with 10 months earlier. Meanwhile, Comex warehouses added more than 240,000 metric tons of copper in the first 10 months of 2025, while SHFE facility inventory had grown by more than 40,000 metric tons, according to ICSG.

Beyond the turbulent trading front, ICSG also said secondary refined recycled-content production grew at a faster rate than primary production in the first three quarters of 2025, rising by 5.5 percent, mainly due to growth in China.

This higher secondary production figure helps to illustrate the resilience of recycled copper production whether in China or beyond.

For red metals recyclers, questions heading into this year involve not only the direction of copper’s price but also the status of demand for copper in the U.S., China and the rest of the world.

Where to next?

In addition to tracking the value of copper, Gross keeps a close eye on the U.S. real estate and construction sectors to gauge near- and medium-term demand.

“In the building and real estate sector, with the exception of a [November] increase in new home sales, the rest of the complex remains in negative territory,” Gross writes in his “Copper Monthly Journal Report” released in early December 2025.

Sales of existing homes at a 4 million annual rate coincides with the depth of the financial crisis, according to Gross, who expresses concern that lower interest rates alone might not help the U.S. housing market recover from a problem he says could be bigger and more complex than interest rates.

As they entered 2026, copper producers and publicly traded recycling firms remained guarded—or perhaps cautiously optimistic—about prospects for demand in the near term.

Germany-based Aurubis AG, which produces recycled copper in the U.S., said in a December statement for investors that it expects its business model to prove resilient in what it calls a challenging market environment, noting it anticipates a profitable outcome in the company’s current fiscal year.

“Our results for 2024/25 show that even in economically turbulent times, we deliver stable performance, consistently execute our ambitious investment agenda and offer higher dividends,” CEO Toralf Haag says.

Mueller Industries, another producer of recycled red metals that is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee, said in an October 2025 investor presentation that its metals production business unit maintained an 11.3 percent operating profit margin in a recent financial reporting period.

“Softness in residential construction, combined with an influx of imported products ahead of escalating tariffs, exerted downward pressure on unit volumes in several of our businesses,” Mueller CEO Greg Christopher said in October of last year.

Although tariffs were not introduced on copper cathodes, the tariffs on products made with copper could prove to be positive for Mueller Industries, according to Christopher.

“Looking forward, we are highly optimistic about our business,” he said. “Our plants operate most effectively when fully loaded. As for heightened tariffs, we maintain our belief that they will ultimately benefit our business as we manufacture just a small percentage of our products overseas for importation into the U.S. market.”

As they roll up their sleeves to take on 2026, recyclers and traders of copper and brass likely are relieved 2025 is in the rearview mirror and might just as likely feel prepared for whatever challenges the new year brings.

The author is senior editor at the Recycling Today Media Group and can be reached at btaylor@gie.net.